China - United States - Russia: Nuclear war is not in sight
The rise in tensions with the United States and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine led Beijing to make known the situations and procedures that governed Russia's transition to nuclear power, and therefore China's. There can be no nuclear engagement without a finding that the very existence of the state is threatened (possibly by a cyber attack). The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces and the Minister of Defense still have to activate the encrypted network that will transmit the firing code composed by the President. There can be no crazy nuclear strike and today, no nuclear war to worry about.
Unlike the French media, which may have seen in the heightened alert of the Russian deterrent forces a threat of nuclear war, China, through the intermediary of the unofficial Global Times, saw it only as a warning to the United States and NATO (Europe is not mentioned) not to venture with armed forces and not to become actors in the dispute between Russia and Ukraine.
Much of China's military doctrine has long been known. Like the United States, Russia, and France, it distinguishes three stages in the engagement of nuclear forces.
- Strategic strikes: these are aimed at cities in the belligerent countries. Because of the retaliation game, they already involve several hundred thousand deaths, if not millions, on both sides in the case of contained strikes. Therefore, they are unthinkable, even if all the nuclear states are preparing for them in order to be able to retaliate.
- Tactical strikes remain possible (for the Chinese in retaliation, since they are forbidden to engage in the first strike). They are aimed at military targets outside the territories of the nuclear powers. In principle, these strikes are assigned by Beijing to medium-range DF-26 missiles that can target American forces deployed outside American territory.
- Warnings: binding measures that demonstrate that Beijing is contemplating going nuclear or is preparing to respond. This is first and foremost how China intends to constrain the United States, through destabilizing measures that will make the American presidents back off.
In accordance with this doctrine, China, which saw itself threatened, was content to let Washington know that it was embarking on the path of deterrence.
- On August 26, 2020, it was a DF-26 missile that was launched near a multinational fleet that was too adventurous in Beijing's eyes in the South China Sea.
- Following Donald Trump's irrational behavior at the end of his term, aberrant to the point that Chinese authorities may have believed the United States was preparing to launch an attack, China put its nuclear forces on alert. To ease the tension, the highest U.S. military authority, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had to call his counterpart, General Li Zuocheng, to calm the situation. Stating, according to Chinese media: "General, I want to assure you that the U.S. government is stable and that everything will be OK," adding: "We are not going to attack or conduct any strikes against you. If we were to attack, I would let you know. It would not be a surprise strike."
- With this conclusion recalled by the Chinese media: a president, even an American one, cannot take his country over the nuclear threshold alone.
Current events have given Beijing the opportunity to go further and to make known the situations and procedures that govern China's transition to nuclear power. It did so indirectly, by recalling the Russian procedures from which it draws its inspiration.
- A first provision protects political power from possible military blackmail; outside of periods of serious crisis, the missiles are under military control, while the warheads are stored in civilian sites under FSB control* .
- According to the principles governing the use of nuclear deterrence, appropriately recalled, the transition of the Russian Federation to a state where the use of nuclear weapons is considered, results from the finding of one of the following situations:
- confirmation by reliable data of the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies;
- the use of nuclear or other types of weapons of mass destruction by an adversary against the Russian Federation and/or its allies;
- attack by an adversary on critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, the interruption of which would jeopardize the effectiveness of state action or jeopardize the response actions of nuclear forces ;
- Aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.
For the Chinese authorities, this publication is a warning to the United States, showing where the "red lines" are. Among these, implicitly: cyber attacks that could damage the infrastructure of the deterrence system.
Once the situation is confirmed, the decision to use nuclear weapons is taken by the President of the Russian Federation. The encrypted communication device for ordering a nuclear strike must still be activated, which can only be done with the approval of the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff of the armed forces. For the nuclear fire to be ordered, the coordinated action of these two authorities is required, in addition to the sending of the code composed by the president.
Here is, indirectly exposed as it is usually the case, one of the Chinese military secrets revealed from what could have been written by foreigners and that Beijing took care to re-broadcast. With the intention of reassuring the world: China could not be the cause of a nuclear war. And for the present time, despite the deadly clashes in Ukraine, a nuclear war is not to be feared.
Edouard Valensi, Asie21
