China - United States Xi: "Joe, relax!"
The military exercise that brought together American and South Korean forces from June 2 to 4, 2022, and which saw the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan sail off the coast of North Korea, resulted in a sudden increase in tensions. It was not only followed, as soon as the exercise was over, by a very violent reaction from North Korea: the firing of eight ballistic missiles with the value of a nuclear warning, but it was considered unbearable by China, which saw itself indirectly targeted. Its feelings were such that the Global Times went so far as to write: "As long as the North American continent is safe, the United States will create instability in the whole world". For the time being, this is just another warning.
FACTS
Tensions have risen again on the Korean peninsula in the wake of the large-scale exercise that brought together the American and South Korean armies from 2 to 4 June 2022, near the North Korean coast, with the participation of the USS Ronald Reagan. This presence of an aircraft carrier, a first since 2017, triggered the firing of eight ballistic missiles by North Korea on 5 June and the multiplication of threatening articles in the Chinese press, marking Beijing's irritation.
FORWARD-LOOKING COMMENTS
On the Korean peninsula, it is the escalation. According to the North Korean agency Yonhap, North Korea launched eight short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on June 5, 2022, in response to a joint military exercise by South Korean forces and the naval air group accompanying the nuclear aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan.
This was not a trivial retaliation, but a stern nuclear warning. With the coordinated launch of ballistic missiles from four different sites, North Korea demonstrated its saturation attack capability1 . These launches were answered the next day by a conventional salvo of an equal number of short-range missiles fired by the South Korean and American allies.
For the Chinese authorities, the United States is at the origin of this serious increase in tension. During his visit to Seoul on May 20, 2022, Joe Biden was able to convince the new South Korean government to adopt a hard line towards North Korea. It is clear that neither the United States, which is putting forward conditions that it knows Pyongyang will not accept, nor the new South Korean government, which is reconsidering the preventive strike on North Korean missile sites, the Kill Chain system2 , have any intention of negotiating to reduce tensions.
But it is not only North Korea that is targeted here. According to Chinese experts quoted by the Global Times, Washington wants to turn China's neighbourhood into a "powder keg", and this hardening, this rise in temperature in the regions close to China, is part of the United States' global power strategy. This is just one facet of destabilizing global maneuvers. The U.S. is encouraging countries to fight proxy wars over and over again, creating problems against Iran, North Korea and other countries," they say. "The U.S. has already messed up Europe by spreading the Russian threat theory, and now it is spreading the Chinese threat theory in the Asia-Pacific region in hopes of uniting its allies in the region to contain China .3
Faced with what it considers to be provocations, Beijing will not stand idly by. It has a diagnosis that comes with a threat. "The United States will create instability throughout the world as long as the North American continent is safe."
This is a warning that the United States should take seriously, since at the same time China is comfortably installed in the Caribbean, where it is gradually taking over from the United Kingdom4 . Between 2005 and 2020, it has committed more than eight billion dollars to transportation, mining and agriculture programs. It has also expanded into Latin America, where it is the second-largest trading partner and the second-largest destination for its foreign investment. Countries happy to forge ties with China based on mutual respect rather than polluted by an ideology that underlies geopolitical objectives. There must be no misunderstanding, "the United States cannot use the Summit of the Americas to sabotage China-Latin America ties5 . And he drives home the point: "Any attempt to push Latin America in the direction of a new Cold War will fail."
But that is not the most worrying thing. In addition to its countless partners, including Venezuela, to which it is close and which it even supplies with weapons, China has an ally, Cuba. "A good brother, a good comrade, a great friend", an anchor close to the United States. China is now Havana's first commercial partner and its first source of technology. With the Chinese oil company Great Wall Drilling, Cuba is exploiting the deep-seated deposits in the northwest of the island. To ensure the survival of the communist regime, China has replaced the ruined Russia. The new big sister, with Cuba, is able to revive revolutionary structures to undermine the American order.
Where do we stand? For the time being, these are only threats, some would go so far as to say admonitions. But make no mistake, in the North as well as in the South, China which does not want to see itself dragged into a new Cold War is ready to lash out with its claws and is urging Joseph Robinette Biden's America to come to its senses and change its tone. Joe, relax!
(1) Cf. Asie21 n° 160/2022-04 North Korea - South Korea : A nuclear mediation ? Why not?
(2) South Korea's pre-emptive strike system
(3) China urges calm following missile launches in Korean Peninsula, as US continues to light powder keg, Global Times, 06/06/2022
(4) Cf. Asie21 n° 161/2022-05 China - United States : China in comfort, in the Caribbean
(5) US won't be able to use summit to sabotage China-Latin America ties, Global Times, 06/06/2022
