China - Yemen - Iran

China, mediator in the Red Sea

‍

The United States is on the wrong track when it asks China to intervene with Iran to get the Houthi rebels to put an end to their ship strikes in the Red Sea. It is not to Iran that China will turn, but to the Houthis' state, the Republic of Yemen, a religious state which sees itself as invulnerable and which, with these strikes, intends to punish America and aggressor Israel in Gaza. Yemen was one of the first countries to recognize China in 1956. China will help Yemen take full advantage of its oil resources, and will support the country as it rebuilds. In exchange, China should gain a strategic foothold at the southern tip of Yemen, a control point for flows across the Bab el Mandeb strait.

On January 26, 2024, according to the unofficial Global Times, citing Western media, the United States asked China to urge Teheran to rein in pro-Iranian Houthi militants attacking commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea. A request made necessary by the poor results of Operation Prosperity Guardian, Anglo-American retaliatory fire aimed at missile sites, military installations and now towns in Houthi areas. . As the Western press deplores, miserable terrorists from the depths of the deserts are holding out against the joint forces of the United States and the United Kingdom.

Can we believe that it is possible to put an end to clashes that are damaging almost 15% of the world's shipping traffic without questioning the origin of this earthquake, and what is motivating those responsible, the Houthis? We can't be content with what is complacently repeated: the follies of miserable terrorists backed by Iran.

Search the Web for a moment, and the reality becomes clear. It's a nation of over twenty million inhabitants, a religious and structured state, even if it's not recognized by the international community. A country with nothing to lose, already one of the most miserable in the world (see Box 1).

Can the international community hope to bring this country back to its senses without recognizing its existence, when it doesn't even have a name, being referred to only by the expression "the Houthis", and without trying to understand its motivations and objectives?

Houthi Yemen will win

‍
This entity has given itself a hard-won name: the Republic of Yemen. It is a Zaidi Shiite religious state, governed by Sharia law, having triumphed over the Saudi Arabia/United Arab Emirates/United States coalition, self-confident to the point of irrationality (see Box 2).

On the Red Sea, the Republic of Yemen fights "the forces of global arrogance and tyranny represented by America, Great Britain and those who followed in regional and global orbit. Foremost among these is Israel, since the conflagration in Gaza". Yemenis will always stand by the oppressed nation of Palestinians, and it is in support of them that the Yemeni army has targeted more than twenty commercial ships and oil tankers linked to Israel in the Red Sea2 .

A struggle that will endure. On February 8, calling on millions to take to the squares in solidarity with the Palestinian people, the leader of the Yemeni revolution, Abdul-Malik Badr al-Houthi, declared "Our operations have continued this week towards the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the movement of ships linked to Israel is almost non-existent. This is a real achievement and a real victory3 ."

For his part, the commander of the Houthi forces, Mohamed al-Atifi, says: "Our revolutionary leadership and the Supreme Political Council have taken all well-considered measures, both near and far, and we are ready for a long-term confrontation with Western forces4 ." The Republic of Yemen, which has withstood nine years of American-Saudi-Emirati military aggression, and the siege that has created the worst humanitarian catastrophe caused by man, will not be deterred from pursuing its humanitarian and moral duty to the Palestinian people. "Our people know no surrender."

‍

China on the lookout

‍
Aware of the limited results of their interventions and the impasse in which they find themselves, the United States, in addition to the embargo on oil deliveries and the seizure of ships, is multiplying the financial sanctions pronounced by the Treasury Department against players who support the Houthis. These financial sanctions will be short-lived, as the companies concerned have access to the yuan, which will enable China to get even closer to the Yemeni republic.

Ties that go back a long way: after Egypt and Syria, North Yemen is the third Arab country to recognize China.

A relationship that has never been broken. On January 30, 2024, Vice Foreign Minister Deng Li received Mansour Ali Saeed, his Houthi counterpart, and declared: "The Chinese side greatly appreciates Yemen's long-standing support for China. And we are ready to work with Yemen to strengthen our exchanges and cooperation in various fields, and greatly develop China-Yemen relations5 ". He continued: "China is ready to work with the international community so that peace and stability can be restored in Yemen."
China deplores the clashes in the Red Sea, but takes the position of observer6 . As the conflict continued, Beijing openly condemned the Anglo-American strikes, which had not been authorized by the Security Council, and, without condemning them, reported extensively on the Yemeni fire.7.

It is encouraged by the United States, aware of the limits of its involvement in the Red Sea and the ineffectiveness of its retaliation, and fearful of finding itself embroiled in a new conflict. Shamelessly, they are urging China to put pressure on Iran to put an end to the firing of missiles8 .

They are doubly mistaken. The Houthi Republic is independent and fanatical. It won't be with Iran, but with the Republic of Yemen that, with Washington's approval, Beijing will make contact.  

This is China's first role in the Middle East, and will enable it to gain a foothold in Yemen.

A big winner: China

‍
Especially as the Chinese are persona grata in Yemen. Highlighting the increasingly close relations between Beijing and the Houthis, one of the members of the political bureau, Ali Al-Qahoum, praised China, stating that it "has begun to play a central role and conclude agreements that restore calm, peace and diplomatic relations between the countries of the region9  ".

China will be able to position itself as a major economic partner. If the conflicts subside, Yemen will want to feed its population, rebuild and develop economically. It will need partners, Chinese companies will be there, and with the exploitation of its oil, China will be able to provide the billions of yuan it will then need.

Already, in May 2023, the Minister of Petroleum and Minerals, Ahmed Abdullah Dares, signed a memorandum of understanding for oil exploration projects with the Chinese government and Anton Oilfield Services Group. But by warning Western oil companies against any intention of concluding an agreement with South Yemen, where Yemen's oil terminal is located today. And by revealing his intention to regain control of the entire oil chain right up to the terminal10 .

Nothing is free, and we can imagine that, as a reward for its support, China might ask for the creation of a port and its oil terminal, a strategic anchorage point. A military base at the southern tip of Yemen on the Murad site and opposite the island of Mayyun, giving China, opposite Djibouti, an overview of maritime traffic in the Red Sea and a control point for flows crossing the Bab el Mandeb Strait. At the entrance to the Bab el Mandeb Strait,  could be the new godfather of the Red Sea.

‍

1. If US needs China in Red Sea, it should talk to China nicely, Global Times, 26/01/2023.
   ‍
2. Yemenis acting independently in their Red Sea operations: IRGC Navy chief, IRNA, 29/01/2024.
   ‍
3. Revolutionary leader calls on millions to take to the squares in solidarity with the Palestinian people, 08/02/2024
   ‍
4. Yemen's Houthis say ready for long-term confrontation with US, Britain in Red Sea? Xinhua, 31/01/2024.
   ‍
5. Vice Foreign Minister Deng Li Holds Talks with Deputy Foreign Minister of Yemen Mansour Ali Saeed Bajas, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjb_663304/zygy_663314/gyhd_663338/202402/t20240201_11237431.html, 30/01/2024.
   ‍
6. Cf. Asie21 n° 180/2024-02 China Red Sea/Strange strategy, really?
   ‍
7. Imperative all parties refrain from any actions that might worsen situation in the Middle East, Global Times, 21/01/2024.
   ‍
8. The U.S. wants China to play a larger role in the Middle East, axios.com, 27/01/2023.
   
9. What is China doing in Yemen? by Emily Milliken, Responsible Statecraft, 13/07/2023.
   
10. Yemen's Houthi gov't enters oil exploration deal with China, Middle East Monoitor, 21/05/2023

‍

Box 1
2024: the Republic of Yemen

‍

Yemen has been in a state of perpetual upheaval for over fifty years. Initially, two countries coexisted on this territory: North Yemen, otherwise known as the Yemen Arab Republic, and South Yemen, known as the People's Democracy of Yemen. These two states merged in 1990 to form the Republic of Yemen, with its own constitution. A democracy in the Arab world, no doubt, but an unstable state which, from the 2000s onwards, was ravaged by the activities of Islamist movements, particularly the Houthis.

We won't go into the details of the eight-year civil war between the Sunni-dominated government and the Houthi rebels. These fighters, who hail from poor mountainous regions and profess Zaydism, a branch of Shi'ism, have been marginalized for decades. After eight years of fighting, the UN estimates the number of victims at nearly 380,000. 150,000 people were killed in the fighting, and a further 227,000 died from indirect consequences of the conflict, such as lack of drinking water, sustained famine and disease. In 2023, what was once Yemen will find itself divided between three main players: the internationally recognized government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC), united to form South Yemen, and the Houthi rebels in what was North Yemen. The United Nations notwithstanding, while the South remains divided between loyalist forces, separatists and various tribes, a mosaic of competing factions, in the North there is a state.

A state which, since 2014 and the capture of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, has been trying to take shape. To break the silence that surrounds it and discern its reality, we recommend browsing the communiqués of the Yemeni news agency, SABA , (https://www.saba.ye/fr), and more generally the content of North Yemeni sites obtained with the descriptor "site: ye" to which it is possible to add Security Council reports on Yemen.

‍

‍

1 - National symbol of Yemen

‍

Yemen, land of the Queen of Sheba, goes back a long way. In the 18the  century, it was one of the world's leading producers of mocha coffee. The ancient city of Sadaa, cradle of Zaydism, is a World Heritage Site.

‍

‍

Since 2016, a political and religious authority, the "Guide of the Revolution". Abdul-Malik Badruldeen al-Houthi is head of the Republic of Yemen. Born in 1982, he studied Shiism in Qom. He has denied any desire to establish an Islamic state, and has been accused of doing so.

Alongside it, the Supreme Political Council is a collegiate executive institution, comprising ten members. Its chairman is Marshal Mahdi Al-Mashat, President of the Supreme Political Council and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. The Supreme Political Council appoints an upper parliamentary chamber, the Shura Council, and downstream sits a House of Representatives, which is empowered to question the government.

The Republic of Yemen is a religious state under Sharia law, where Islam gives "great status to women, making them occupy the rank and position they deserve". A militarized state whose political authority is unchallenged and where the security situation is stable. It is true that the religious regime ensures the population's adherence to its ideology and popular support for its cause through persuasion campaigns, the organization of summer camps and cultural courses for adults and children1 .

The country's economy remains devastated by the consequences of the conflict between the two Yemens and the sanctions imposed by the Security Council. It does, however, benefit from oil and gas resources that contribute a significant share of GDP, although they remain under-exploited. In addition, agricultural production is insufficient to feed a rapidly growing population. According to the United Nations, over 80% of the population still has difficulty gaining access to food, drinking water and appropriate health services.

It is an independent state. Any support it may receive from Iran, a "brotherly country" that has recognized the Houthis as the legitimate authority in Yemen, remains selective and measured. According to Reuters, the depth of their relationship is unclear, with Yemeni authorities claiming that they are mainly motivated by national objectives. In any case, geography imposes its law here. The deserts of Saudi Arabia separate the two countries. Sanaa is over 1,900 kilometers from the nearest Iranian port, and the two capitals, Sanaa and Teheran, are over 3,000 kilometers apart. In addition to the closely guarded sea, smuggled goods and weapons cross the border between Yemen and Oman concealed in trucks.

A nation always fighting, determined, invulnerable in its mountains A republic of Yemen that takes advantage of the war in Gaza to impose its presence internationally. A way of both attacking the United States and gaining recognition as a state.

‍

(1)Report of the Panel of Experts on Yemen's established pursuant to Security Council resolution 2140.

‍

Box 2
Invincible forces

‍
It is in response to religious commandments that the country has committed itself to unwavering support for Gaza. On January 25, the leader of the revolution, Sayyid Abdul-Malik Badr al-Houthi, recalled: "Our commitment to supporting Gaza is rooted in the responsibilities entrusted to us by Almighty God, and in our awareness of the gravity of the situation and the importance of a solid commitment. We affirm here that the commitment of the Yemeni people to the victory of Palestine does not originate in a vacuum or a temporary emotional explosion, but in a clear awareness of the divine commandments, the most important of which is the victory of truth, whatever the sacrifices made. Everyone will stand before God to be questioned on what they have done to overcome this oppression1 .

In the same spirit of fanaticism, the Houthis are recruiting children as fighters, a practice denounced by the UN. Houthi supervisors recruit children aged between 13 and 17 at community level, using coercion, threats to parents and teachers, and material incentives. They indoctrinate them with cultural and religious teachings based on Houthi ideology, and promise them martyrdom2 .

‍

A child at the conscripts' parade

‍
Not surprisingly, Ansarullah's military communiqués are religious in nature: "In the name of God the Merciful. God Almighty has said: 'To whoever defends himself after his oppression, I will grant protection from the way that is imposed upon him. God Almighty has spoken the truth. [...] God is sufficient for us, and He is the best arranger of affairs, the best protector and the best helper. Long live Yemen, free, dear and independent3 ."

This is the context underlying military operations. The firing on ships is a deliberate act by a nation asserting its independence.  This is what Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri says from Iran: "The Yemeni armed forces are acting independently in their military operations in the Red Sea. Yemen is an independent country with a strong army and a strong leadership that is not directed by any outside party4 .
A military statement that backs up Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani's declaration: "Yemen is acting independently in its operations against ships linked to Israel in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea because of the regime's war in Gaza. To claim otherwise is to deviate from reality."

Operations set to expand. As the Anglo-American strikes expand, with 73 raids targeting the Yemeni capital Sanaa as well as the provinces of Hodeidah, Taiz, Hajjah and Saada, and as cities are targeted, Yemen's Supreme Political Council announces: "All American and British interests are now legitimate targets for Houthi forces5 ." A direct confrontation with the coalition is announced.

The Republic of Yemen, drawing lessons from the revolutionary war it waged against the Saudi-US-backed coalition, declares itself invincible: "All the world's military leaders warned us against engaging in battle without air cover [...] but Yemen proved the failure of this military concept, and without air cover the Yemeni forces were able to make their fight a great success."

"For decades, we've been hearing about the American and British military bogeyman, particularly in the maritime field. Britain, once described as the master of the seas, and America are now in a direct, losing confrontation with the Yemenis. The reason is that the decisive factor in any battle is the human being, not the weapon. The human being armed with a correct combat doctrine and directed by a national leadership towards a noble and lofty goal."

With this astounding conclusion: "The logical, reasonable and acceptable question for the peoples of the Earth is the disintegration of these two countries, which have afflicted the world with the scourge of wars and destruction, and it is now time for them to drink from the same cup6 ."

‍

1. The correct Yemeni position towards Gaza and the conditions for victory, as written by the masses, saba.net, 28/01/2023.
   ‍
2. Report of the Panel of Experts on Yemen's established pursuant to Security Council resolution 2140, 2022.  
   ‍
3. Armed forces targeted an American commercial vessel bound for ports in occupied Palestine, saba.ye, 31/01/2024.
   ‍
4. Yemenis acting independently in their Red Sea operations: IRGC Navy chief, IRNA, 29/01/2024.
   ‍
5. The disintegration of America and Britain is a global requirement, saba.net, 29/01/2024.
   ‍
6. Ibid

‍

‍