China, United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, United States : An impatient China, a cautious Emirate

U.S. pressure forces UAE to cancel joint military drills with China, highlighting rising regional tensions

The world press relayed the announcement that in August 2023, a Falcon Shield-2023 training exercise would bring together the air forces of China and the UAE in Xinjiang. Beijing stood to gain a great deal from this exercise. UAE air force pilots would be able to pass on experience gained in a series of conflicts in the Middle East, and above all, China would be able to assess and evaluate UAE F-16s in combat. But the deal fell through. No exercise. The American reaction was strong enough for the Emirates to fall in line and give up. This is a harsh lesson for China. Will it not have to admit that it will only be able to gain a foothold in the Middle East gradually, in small steps?

On July 31, 2023, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced: according to the annual plan linking China and the United Arab Emirates, the Falcon Shield-2023 joint training exercise between the air forces of China and the UAE^* would be held in Xinjiang, China, in August. This would be the first joint training conducted by the two air forces. It is intended to deepen pragmatic exchanges and cooperation between the two militaries, and to enhance mutual understanding and cooperation¹ 

The announcement of the maneuvers was widely reported around the world. However, the surprising nature of the maneuvers was not emphasized, nor was the questioning of the implications of the United Arab Emirates' non-alignment for the political balance in the Gulf.

At most, the political advantages of the choice of the area where the exercise was to take place were highlighted: in north-west China in Xinjiang, far from the Gulf, but close to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, in a sparsely populated area where 12 million Uyghur Muslims live in continuity with neighboring countries. 

‍

It was also noted that the Emirati aircraft would transit through a friendly country, Pakistan, on their way to the maneuver zone. Indeed, the United Arab Emirates went so far as to invite Pakistani air force pilots to act as instructors for their pilots.

It was clear that Beijing would gain a lot from these exercises. The Chinese Internet portal, NetEase Group, went so far as to write: "UAE air force pilots have accumulated practical experience in a series of military conflicts involving the Middle East in the past. The joint UAE-Chinese air training in Xinjiang will certainly help our air force pilots to understand and learn new air tactics from other countries. It will be of great help in improving the air combat capabilities of our own pilots² ."

The Emirates claim to be non-aligned, but fall back into line 

This exercise would have been a milestone in the Emirates' process of de-alignment. A young federation barely over 50 years old, it has maintained close relations with the United States since its earliest days, but has been careful not to become too dependent on it. It's true that the heart of its army is equipped with first-rate American weapons: 78 F-16 E and F, Lockheed C-130 and C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft, Ah-64 Apache attack helicopters and Thaad anti-missile systems. At the same time, the Emirates have been careful to diversify their arms sources. France, in second place, Turkey and even China have been and remain suppliers. 

Until very recently, it looked as if the UAE^* and the USA maintained excellent relations. Building on the defense cooperation agreement signed in 2019, a year later, with a "Strategic Dialogue", they agreed on a framework to inscribe their exchanges in areas ranging from trade to security. Everything seemed to point to a seamless alliance. It is the Emirates that provide indispensable support for American troops, aircraft and warships in the Persian Gulf. Five thousand American troops are stationed at Al Dhafra air base, just outside Abu Dhabi.

And yet, in recent years, the Emirates and the United States have distanced themselves.

• On the economic front, the "shale gas revolution" has led the USA to source less from the Middle East. By 2023, China had taken its place at the top of the oil market, with almost 16% of the market ($39.4 billion), leaving the USA with just 7% market share, on a par with India. 
• In February 2022, in open defiance of Washington, the UAE announced that it would be signing a contract with China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (CATIC) for the acquisition of 12 Catic Hongdu L15 light combat and training aircraft, with the option of buying a further 36 aircraft at a later date. A major step forward, as the Emirates were already deploying Wing Loong 1 and Wing Loong 2 combat drones from the same Chengdu Aircraft Industry;
• In June 2023, a surprising decision should have alarmed diplomats. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that, after a thorough assessment of its security needs, the country had withdrawn from the US-led Combined Maritime Forces coalition against terrorism and piracy (including Iran) in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, headquartered at the US naval base in Bahrain³ . 

All this was a mere grain of sand compared with the treachery of F-16 participation in combat exercises organized by China on Chinese territory. It's safe to say that in the days following its announcement, American reactions were strong, and that the US Department of Defense, which still holds the maintenance software and spare parts and equipment, was able to make the UAE understand that it would only be a matter of time before, lacking operational weapons, it found itself defenseless. And the exercise disappeared from view.

China will have to be patient in the Middle East

For having tried to jump the gun, China found itself disowned and out of step. As a small consolation, during the first two weeks of September, it was able to conduct an air exercise with Pakistan, in which both sides used Chinese J-10CE fighter jets⁴ .

To go further and establish itself as a big brother in the Middle East, it will undoubtedly have to be patient. It will need to appreciate the complexity of the region, and of the countries that have been given an appearance by the oil windfall, but which, given the weaknesses of their societies, remain dependent on the West, and first and foremost on the United States. For years to come, China will only be able to gain a foothold in the Middle East in small steps. 

EV

‍

_Sources:

_{(1) China, UAE air forces to conduct first joint training; http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/16241137.html} 

_{(2) Chinese Internet portal 163: https://www.163.com/dy/article/IB7TPSF20553TJK2.html, 03/08/2023}

_{(3) China, UAE to hold first joint aerial drills, IFP Media Wire, 31/07/2023}

_{(4) China, Pakistan launch joint air exercise featuring Chinese warplanes on both sides, Global Times, 29/08/2023}  

‍