Eurasia - The new Middle Kingdom - что делать1
Xi, upon leaving Moscow, confided to Putin, "Right now, there are changes, such as we have not seen in 100 years, and we are the ones who will lead them, together."
"Great empires never die, they adapt". Russia joins India and China, reconstituting the empire of Genghis Khan and his successors who dominated the world for over 4 centuries. The trio has the space, the water, the energy, the population and the hunger for growth. The world is changing masters, it thought "Western", it is putting itself on "Asian" time. Chinese and Indian wisdom combined with Russian European experience will be needed to find original solutions to Xi's words. It is difficult to combine two such opposing systems: multi-ethnic empire vs. nation-state2 . Asia has never had the Western taste for conquests, it integrates and assimilates the other, while the West conquers, imposes and replaces. The action in the long time, will judge. Thucydides was right, "history is a perpetual restart", with its dreams and its traps.
FACTS
- 1689: 70% of the world's wealth is the value of the production of the three empires, Russian, Chinese and Indian.
- 2023: 70% of global growth comes from Asia (see Figure 9).
- With the war in Ukraine, Europe cuts its relations with Russia.
- China initiates peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia. With Siberia, Asia has its guaranteed energy.
- BRICS surpass G73 .
ISSUES
Eurasia, the obsession of the Anglo-Saxons
He who rules the Heartland rules the world island; He who rules the world island rules the world, Mackinder 1904.
- Take control of the Eurasian landmass
- 1945: strategic objective of Marshall, Eisenhower and Nimitz,
- 1997: Zbig Brzeziński4 , The Grand Chessboard.
- The West is losing the leadership of world affairs to Asia, consolidated by Russia, rejected by Europe.
- A new political, economic, energy and ecological world policy is opening up. It will be a break with the past and will be inventive, following the inevitable disappearance of the United States.
- Europe, abandoned by Africa, self-isolated from Asia by the Russian fortress-wall, has become Atlanticist. Without cheap fossil energy, with a stagnant and aging population (45 vs 18 years old in Africa), where is its destiny?
FORWARD-LOOKING COMMENTS
Arrogance vs. humility
To make a policy by denying otherness, geography and history, by forgetting the long time, is a mistake. What arrogance in: "The triumph of the West, of the Western idea, is evident [...] in the total exhaustion of viable systemic alternatives to Western liberalism [...] (with) the ineluctable spread of Western consumerist culture."5 Money alone does not guide the world. Culture, history and dreams do.
The domination of the world by the West was brief: 350 years. Science was its driving force, and without conscience, on August 6, 1945, it showed that civilizations were deadly.
Situation for Xi's changes
- Multi-ethnic Asia and Empire vs. the West and the nation-state.
- Asia did not have the Western taste for conquests (Hobsbawn), moreover accompanied by the replacement of the natives, the destruction of their organizations and cultures, even of their people. The conquerors of the empires in Asia were cruel, the subjugated peoples integrated and assimilated6 went so far as to sinicize their own Manchu masters. Religious tolerance was the rule, infrastructure, administration and finance, means and especially trade, the final goal.
- Asia was a world of great empires, like that of Genghis Khan and his descendants, similar to the Roman Empire (already Eurasian) with the steppes of Central Asia replacing the mare nostrum, the caravans as galleys, until the arrival of the English horsepower replacing the Mongolian horse.
- The West, with its nation-states, has conquered the world with its weapons and its religion in the name of the duty of the superior races to civilize the inferior races (Jules Ferry in 1885, date of the Berlin conference7) .
- The RIC* , which produced 70% of the world's wealth in 1689, has become the heart of the BRICS* with its two extensions, African and Latin, is the spearhead of the structure evoked by Xi, dynamic, flexible and committed to development more than to the execution of the orders of the deep state. She created the NBD* in Shanghai with President Dilma Rousseff.
- The liberal economy has shown its effectiveness over 30 years. It has created a richer world (+260%) with a more populated world (150%) and growing inequalities.
- The BRICS (3.2 billion hb) with $42,000 billion now exceed the G7 (770 million hb) while it was 2.5 times smaller in 1990, but their wealth per hb remains 1/3 of that of the G7.
- Sub-Saharan Africa, 1.5 times the population of the G7, produces 10 times less wealth. In 30 years, its per capita wealth has gone from $2,900 to $3,700, while for the G7 it went from $35,000 to $63,000, and for the BRICS from $3,600 to $13,500. There is a danger, because the daba wielder8 has nothing to lose, the Tesla user, a lot.
- Finance has lost its mind: the United States, with 4.1% of the world's population, spends 45% of the world's health and military budgets with $12,500 and $3,000 per capita per year. The fight for eternal life on earth is absurd when 1.1 billion Sub-Saharans live on $3,717/year, and the Chinese, with 23 times less health expenditure, live one year longer than the United States. In the United States, food aid to the poor amounts to $159 billion via SNAP* , while the whole world will give $206 billion in development aid in 2022 (OECD). A political absurdity.
- The perception of ecology in the economy is different depending on where you belong:
to 1.2 billion hb with more than $50,000/year,
to 3.4 billion hb at $25,000/year,
at 1.2 billion hb at $3,217/year,
your objective will be to :
- live better polluting less,
- produce more and better,
- survive or migrate.
100 years is the life of the USSR, Li Dazhao's text of the rebirth of the Chinese nation 中华民族之复活.
The future is uncertain, it will result from the balanced management of the duo "development - ecology", with the rejection of the western consumerist culture9 , because each country or continent has its history, its will to live with its heritage, according to its vision of the future and its mode of governance.
There will be a break in the growth curves, with the rebalancing of the distribution of wealth and its nuisances.
Chosen and managed or suffered? That is the question. The wisdom of Asia, which is taking the lead in world affairs, will be much needed.
Maurice Rossin, Asie21
- "What to do", a famous book by Nikolai Chernyshevsk
- Tilly, an American political scientist, distinguishes between the nation-state, the city-state, and the multi-ethnic, multi-religious state, in "Builders of Empires" by Alessandro Stanziani
- IMF April 2023
- Whose son is ambassador in Warsaw
- Fukuyama "the end of history" 1989
- Anxious to reduce the cultural divide between conquerors and conquered, Alexander the Great, in Susa, in 324 B.C., married ten thousand of his officers and soldiers with as many Persian girls
- In 1885 in Berlin, Europe shared Africa in order to bring the word of Christ to the Africans....and attributed 1.5 million km2 to Leopold II in person, the lands of S. de Brazza to France
- Daba or the hoe in black Africa
- 70% growth in Asia
The Roman and Mongol Empires and their trade routes
A mouse that nibbles at sanctions
