Iran - The bomb that won't be?
Iran declares itself capable of assembling an atomic device, but refuses to do so because Islam forbids the use of weapons of mass destruction. This should not have come as a surprise, since Iran had been hinting for eighteen months that it might engage in the search for such a capability, but without the intelligence services taking any notice. Today the world is divided. For the United States, nothing has changed; it will always be opposed to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. For Russia, on the other hand, Tehran must be taken at its word and the sanctions imposed on it must be lifted. One thing is certain: once again the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is being trampled on.
In response to Joe Biden's statement in Israel during his tour of the Middle East (July 13-16, 2022): "The United States is ready to use all elements of its national power to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons," Kamal Kharazi, head of the Iranian Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, told the world on the Al-Jazeera television channel: "It is no secret that we have become a quasi-nuclear state. In a few days we were able to enrich uranium to 60% and we can easily produce enriched uranium to 90%. It is a fact, we have the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb, but we do not want to, and there has been no decision to do so."1
In principle, therefore, Iran will not go so far as to assemble a nuclear warhead. To possess such a weapon would go against its convictions and its security requirements, whereas it is recognized that the mere possession of nuclear technology and the ability to build a bomb is a deterrent. To be satisfied with a virtual atomic force is not to put oneself in danger, on the contrary. This is what the Iranian News Agency emphasizes, taking up the assessments of Daniel R. DePetris in Newsweek: "Iran's adversaries in the Middle East are already sufficiently deterred from attacking Iranian territory by non-state groups such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, Shiite groups in Iraq and Syria, and Palestinian groups. A nuclear weapon would be of little use in helping Tehran project itself into the region and, by provoking violent responses from enemy powers, would undermine the very purpose of the nuclear program, which is to ensure Iran's security and integrity2 .
Kamal Kharrazi's announcement left the West speechless. It should have been expected, since it merely updated statements made by Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Revolution, eighteen months ago: "If we had decided to build a nuclear weapon, you would not have been able to stop us. But we did not decide to do so because of our Islamic thinking. Islam professes that it is forbidden to use a weapon to kill civilians, ordinary people. Its use is haram, whether it is a nuclear weapon, a chemical weapon or any other weapon of mass destruction.
This is now Islamic law, which only prohibits use, not possession. It shows that the very discreet and very restrictive fatwa which prohibited the possession or manufacture of nuclear weapons and whose existence was revealed in 2005 no longer applies. Tehran has not hidden this fact. On the contrary, in February 2021, Mahmoud Alavi, Minister of Intelligence, warned: "fatwas are not eternal. They are issued according to the evolution of circumstances; if the Americans and Israelis show themselves to be threatening, a new fatwa can be promulgated." Here again we should have been worried, a turning point had been reached, but the intelligence services, as much as the diplomats, inattentive and too often contemptuous, did not know how to pick up these signs. They were caught short.
Never before had Tehran admitted that it was committed to a military atomic program. Finally recognizing the obvious, he can be incisive: "If we had wanted to do it, what right would you have had to prevent us? And he recalls Hiroshima, the deaths of yesterday, and the victims of today in Yemen, when Western-equipped planes bomb people in the streets, in the markets, in the mosques, in the hospitals and in the schools. "This is what you are doing and what the Islamic Republic does not want.3 "
These statements are all the more significant because they come at a time when Israel, with the support of the United States, is openly considering the use of a military option to stop Iran's nuclear program. The Israeli General Staff suggests that the preparation of such an option is a "moral obligation" that it is working to fulfill. The Special Advisor to the Leader of the Revolution is ready to respond. He threatens: "Large-scale military exercises have been conducted on striking deep into Israel. The response is ready, should our sensitive facilities be targeted4 ."
These are the facts. What is the content of the discussions under the JCPoA* , the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action? The expectations of Security Council resolution 2231 on Iran's nuclear program5 are no longer verified and the resolution is in an outdated coma.
According to the State Department, nothing happened. They have acquired additional fissile material, and their breakout time has been significantly reduced. But the president is committed to Iran not acquiring a nuclear weapon, and he continues to believe that diplomacy is the most effective way to keep that commitment. Within this framework, "a mutual return to compliance with the JCPoA* is the most advantageous path, which remains viable, and which we will pursue as long as it is in our best interest6 ."
On the contrary, two days after the announcement, Yuri Ushakov, President Putin's advisor on international relations, reported on Tehran's willingness to accept compromises to resume implementation of the JCPOA* . But adding, "the goal will be to restore Iran's normal commercial and economic interaction with the world; Moscow will continue its efforts to achieve this goal7 ."
Is this not what should alarm us? What is left of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty? The unanimity of the five permanent members of the Security Council is over. The world is about to be split in two, between the West and the East, in a crucial area that has been preserved until now. A break that should move us and that it is perhaps still possible to avoid.
(1) Khamenei adviser says Iran has not opted for nuclear weapons, 7/17/2022 https://www.iranintl.com/
(2) Newsweek: Iran-sufficiently-deterrent-without-a-nuclear-bomb, 7/17/2022, https://www.irna.ir/
(3) Nuclear mass destruction: The American way, not Iran's, 26/02/2021, https://khamenei.ir/
(4) Tehran Times, Iran's nuclear warning shot? 7/18/2022
(5) United Nations Security Council, Resolution 2231 (2015) on Iran's nuclear program, https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/fr/content/2231/background
(6) Department of State Press Briefing - July 18, 2022
(7) Putin's aide supported revival of JCPoA* , IRNA, 07/19/2022
