North Korea - South Korea: A nuclear mediation? Why not?
Despite international sanctions, on April 17, 2022, North Korea reached nuclear maturity with the successful test of a tactical missile. It is now beyond attack. A new equilibrium will be established on the peninsula. Despite the rantings of one side or the other, the atom will eventually impose its law: understanding.
On April 17, 2022, North Korea's KCNA news agency reported that Kim Jong-un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and supreme commander of the DPRK armed forces, witnessed the test firing of a new type of guided tactical weapon. A nuclear weapon system that will give a new dimension to frontline artillery units. The test firing was a complete success1 .
A few reminders about the ins and outs of nuclear deterrence are essential to give full meaning to this test, which has gone almost unnoticed in the West. The major nuclear powers, following the United States, have distinguished between two families of nuclear weapons for over 50 years.
- Strategic weapons: they are aimed at the cities of the belligerents. Through the game of retaliation, in the event of contained strikes, they already generate on both sides, several hundred thousand or even millions of deaths. Therefore, their use is unthinkable, even if all the nuclear states are preparing themselves to be able to retaliate.
- Tactical strikes (in France they are called pre-strategic): they are aimed at military targets outside the territories of nuclear powers. Since they do not lead to apocalypse, their implementation is openly envisaged.
These two families are linked by a dialectical relationship.
- Without a strategic background, tactical weapons cannot be used. Their use, without the back-up of a strategic capability, would in turn unleash the destruction of the country that launched them.
- It must be understood that strategic weapons are not there to be used but only to deter; tactical weapons are the only ones that can be launched.
It should be recalled here that it was de Gaulle, the strategist, who was the first to see that the tactical weapon was the first component of deterrence. In 1970, he made his conviction known: "The tactical atom is so essential for us French, that when it comes time to choose between perfecting the tactical atom or the strategic atom later on, it will probably be necessary to choose the tactical atom, because what is the point of perfecting the apocalypse, it is better to make an effort on what comes before.
Having established this point, it can be observed that each type of weapon has its own adapted delivery systems. Tactical weapons cannot cope with intercontinental missiles that are too powerful to be able to strike nearby targets precisely. Tactical warheads are therefore carried by medium- and short-range vectors, mobile systems to be able to respond to a surprise attack, wherever and by whatever means it is materialized.
It is indeed a mobile weapon system that has been tested. Its dimensions, revealed by the image of the shooting, show that it carries a miniaturized nuclear charge.
International sanctions have had no effect, North Korea is now a mature nuclear state. The balance of power on the Korean peninsula has been significantly altered. A week before this successful test, Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un's sister, already confident, had made this known with a moderate statement.
"North Korea is opposed to a war, which would leave the peninsula in ruins, and it does not consider South Korea as its main enemy. Unless the South Korean army takes military action against our state, it will not be considered a target...But North Korea would be forced to use its nuclear capabilities if South Korea chose the path of military confrontation or carried out a preemptive attack." And to quote the South Korean Defense Minister with the utmost vigor: "This foolish and despicable fellow dared to mention a 'preemptive strike' against a nuclear-armed state in a senseless bluster that will never benefit South Korea...His reckless and untimely rhetoric about a 'preemptive strike' has worsened inter-Korean relations. South Korea must discipline itself if it wants to avoid disaster . 2
In fact, it is not so much the minister who is being warned, but Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea's new conservative president. Unlike his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who favored dialogue, he intends to take a firm stance on North Korea, "determined to teach that rude man, Kim Jong-un, good manners," promising to strengthen the army and suggesting that he could launch a preventive attack if he saw offensive preparations in the north3 . Won't he have to deal with it?
Certainly, in the North as in the South, the tone is rising. However, the most vindictive will not be able to do anything about it, but the atom always imposes its law and it condemns to the agreement.
Edouard Valensi Asia21
edouard.valensi@gmail.com
- Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Observes Test-fire of New-type Tactical Guided Weapon, KCNA, 17/04/2022
- Press Statement of Kim Yo Jong, Vice Department Director of C.C., KCNA, 03/04/2022
- South Korea election brings shift to the right, with a new president vowing to teach "rude boy" Kim Jong Un "some manners", CBS, 10/03/2022
