North Korea - United States - United Nations: The roaring thirty-eighth

The Group of Experts in charge of monitoring the sanctions imposed on North Korea did not hide anything: 1- North Korean nuclear and missile programs have reached the stage of semi-industrial mass production. The failure of sanctions is obvious. But that is not the worst of it; 2-not without reason, frightened by the succession of large-scale military exercises conducted near its coast under the aegis of the States, the DPRK has responded with real war simulations. We have reached the point where all it would take is for a serious incident to degenerate for the nuclear threshold to be crossed. Is it not urgent to calm the situation and, whatever the cost, in exchange for the DPRK's openness to the world, to recognize the de facto existence of the North Korean deterrent forces?

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The Mars 2023  annual report posted by the Security Council Panel of Experts on Sanctions to Enforce the Termination of DPRK Nuclear and Missile Programs devotes more than 140 pages to this topic alone1 . The report's sources of information are mainly satellite images of nuclear sites that were transmitted by the United States, reports by North Korean television stations and articles by the North Korean news agency, KCNA, reporting on statements by the respected Comrade Kim Jong-un. This study attempts to draw out the main findings
 
 
Concerning the monitoring of the production of fissile material, and more generally of nuclear activities, there is nothing that deserves attention. Similarly, there was little to report about the weak resumption of activity at the Punggye-ri test site: the reopening of Tunnel 3, the continued construction of annex buildings in the main administrative area, and the reinforcement of access roads to Tunnel 4 and the command center. Nothing deserved attention, except for the American services, which were able to announce for a year the imminent test of a thermonuclear charge.
 
Downstream, however, nuclear and ballistic programs have accelerated dramatically. The construction of missiles has reached a semi-industrial stage, with the search for common components for missiles. This is shown in the following illustration.
  
A multitude of successful tests of missiles and new engines has demonstrated the reliability, complementarity and operational readiness of tactical and strategic delivery systems.
Among the highlights was the testing of a solid rocket booster sized for an intercontinental missile body at the Sohae Horizontal Engine Test Stand on 15 December 2022. According to North Korea's news agency, it has a composite fiber liner and a 140-ton thrust that is vector-controlled.
 
The ability to carry out a sudden nuclear strike against any regional or intercontinental target, as mentioned in the public statements of the respected Comrade Kim Jong-un, has been confirmed. The work of the Expert Group confirms and clarifies what Asia21 had written on the subject2 .
 
If a serious incident occurs, the nuclear threshold could be crossed

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The reasons for concern lie elsewhere, in a context of growing tensions.
 
The succession on September 23, September 26-29, and September 30, 2022, of large-scale military exercises conducted by combined naval forces involving the navies and air forces of South Korea, Japan and the United States, with the presence in the waters of the Korean peninsula of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, was perceived by Pyongyang, not without reason, as rehearsals for attacks on its territory.
 
As a result, the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea, after considering the politico-military situation thus created, decided to hold military exercises in the form of a real war simulation on the Korean peninsula3 . The tactical missile drills conducted from September 25 to October 9, 2022, are part of this framework.
 
It is not so much the nature of these wargames that should be remembered: the complete simulation of the firing sequence from the order of withdrawal and loading of nuclear warheads, the loading of tactical missiles into silos to the observation of the explosion of the warhead at the point and altitude set,
but the potential targets that had been set for the missiles:  
neutralize airports in South Korea's areas of operation,
simulate a strike on the enemy's main military command facilities,
paralyze the enemy's main ports with multiple rocket launchers.
 
With all due reserve, the Panel is sending an unequivocal message to the international community. A worrying, not to say terrifying, climate prevails on the Korean peninsula, where it would only take a serious incident to escalate to the nuclear threshold.
 
Be clear-headed, but remain firm

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Isn't it time to look for ways to ease the situation?  Whatever it takes:
recognize that since the 1950s, on both sides of the 38e parallel, two nations, the United States and North Korea, have been fighting each other and that it must be possible to keep our distance from each other;
the failure of sanctions: North Korea's deterrent forces are here to stay. Is it still reasonable to demand the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of North Korea?
urge North Korea to open up, so that the international community can recognize the de facto existence of North Korea's deterrent forces.

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1. Final report of the Panel of Experts pursuant to resolution 2627 (2022)
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2. Cf. Asie21 n° 171/2023-04 North Korea - United States - United Nations: A nuclear show
   Cf. Asie21 n° 171/2023-04 North Korea : A nuclear tsunami
   Cf. Asie21 n° 168/2023-01 North Korea - South Korea - United States : Korean Nuclear Prurits
   Cf. Asie21 n° 167/2022-12 North Korea - United States: Nuclear as usual
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3. Statement on 10 October 2022: Respected Comrade Kim Jong-Un Guides Military Drills of KPA Units for Operation of Tactical Nukes, KCNAWATCH? 10/10/2022

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