North Korea - United States: The ninth nuclear state
Since January 22, 2023, verbal confrontations and military exercises between the USA, South Korea and Japan and North Korea have been a thing of the past. Donald Trump made up his mind when he declared that Kim Jong-un was a good guy with whom he got on well, and that the DPRK was a nuclear power. Regardless of his allies' lamentations and the UN's mockery of him, it seems that, on his initiative, we are well on the way to an alliance between the USA and the DPRK, much to China's chagrin.
Since January 22, 2023, verbal confrontations and military exercises between the USA, South Korea and Japan and North Korea have been a thing of the past. Donald Trump made up his mind when he declared that Kim Jong-un was a nice guy to get along with, and that the DPRK was a nuclear power. Regardless of his allies' lamentations and the UN being flouted, it seems that, at his initiative, we are well on the way to an alliance between the USA and the DPRK, much to China's chagrin.
KCNA: Korean Central News Agency
DPRK: Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea
Republic of Korea: South Korea
FACTS
On January 23, 2025, fresh from taking office, President Trump declared his desire to resume dialogue with Kim Jong-un. Here, in raw form, are his words: "[Obama] said North Korea was the biggest threat, and I solved that problem. He's not a religious fanatic. He happens to be a smart guy (...) He liked me. They thought it was a huge threat, but now it's a nuclear power. We got along well. I think he'll be happy to see me back1.
CHALLENGES
Taking the Security Council and its allies by surprise, the President of the United States has just acknowledged that North Korea is a nuclear power. He has given new life to the conclusions of the 2018 Singapore meeting: the United States and the DPRK* will be able to establish new relations in line with the desire for peace and prosperity of the peoples of both countries. Don't let this be seen as a stunt - Trump's approach is well thought-out. His aim is to ensure that Kim Jong-un chooses the United States to stand up to China, and that Pyongyang eventually joins the alliance uniting Washington, Seoul and Tokyo in a united Korean peninsula.
FORWARD-LOOKING COMMENTS
What should no longer be
President Trump's words come as a surprise to everyone. Until the last few weeks, the weather on the Korean border had been stormy.
- The Biden administration's latest military maneuvers are denounced by the North Korean news agency KCNA* in flowery language: "While all the countries of the world were still in the festive mood of the New Year, the puppet navy of the Republic of Korea conducted war exercises in the eastern, western and southern seas, bringing together destroyers, escort ships and others. At the same time, infantry, artillery and engineering units were maneuvering, and armored brigades joined in to shake the land of the Republic of Korea2."
- On February 11, an American nuclear-powered submarine, the USS Alexandria, called at the Busan naval base. While Seoul sees the visit as an opportunity to strengthen military cooperation between US and South Korean naval forces, and to consolidate their common defense posture, Pyongyang sees it as a hostile military act that could lead to full-scale military confrontation.
Provocations that are denounced, but nothing more. The North Korean Defense Ministry spokesman does not raise his voice when he laments: "Washington openly ignores the security concerns of the DPRK*". On the other hand, he warns Seoul and Tokyo, adding: "We express our deep concern about a dangerous and hostile military act that may lead to a military confrontation in the region around the Korean peninsula"3.
Nothing is certain. However, this contained statement may suggest that, in the moment, Kim Jong-un may have appreciated what President Trump's statements bring to him and his country.
It could be a reversal of alliances taking shape in Korea.
Trump's coup d'éclat
All it took was a few sentences:
"Now [North Korea] is a nuclear power",
"He happens to be a smart guy (...) He liked me (...) We got along well." so that yesterday's routine hostility and recurring challenges would be a thing of the past in Washington.
But this is not the case elsewhere, where the only way to deal with North Korea is to use extremely tough language.
- Japan refuses to engage in polemics with the US President, but considers it a "rare gesture" to refer to North Korea as a "nuclear power". The government's chief spokesman, Yoshimasa Hayashi, does not elaborate on the use of the expression or on the prospect of dialogue between the United States and North Korea. But he does stress the importance of joint efforts to urge North Korea to abandon its nuclear and missile programs, which threaten regional peace and security. However, when he goes on to point out that "Japan also gives priority to resolving the issue of the abductions of Japanese nationals by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s4 , placing this dispute on the same level as nuclear prospects, he puts his country's reservations into perspective.
- South Korea, which is directly concerned, has expressed its dismay. Its Foreign Minister is vehement: "Under the international non-proliferation treaty, North Korea cannot be recognized as a nuclear-weapon state, and its denuclearization is a principle shared by all parties concerned, including the U.S." He reiterates: "The denuclearization of North Korea is still an obligation for the international community. He reiterates: "The denuclearization of North Korea remains an obligation for the international community5." Alongside him, as reported by The Korea Hearald, the Conservative Party considers Trump's remarks "very regrettable", but concedes that it is too early to discern what his intentions are.
Why we say it
These questions can be answered by considering President Trump's personality.
Like Alexander the Great, he knows how to cut through the Gordian knot. His declarations are not the result of a whim, but come at the end of a process of reflection. Four years away from power, in rancor, and the ability to judge governments from a distance or, more precisely, political deadlocks, those doxas paralyzing because outdated. He is therefore able to recognize what must be obvious to all: denying the existence of North Korean nuclear forces condemns us to inaction. It's high time to accept reality.
This is a man with a good memory. To know what he's offering Kim Jong-un, we need only look back to 2018 and the conclusions of the Singapore meeting. Subject to the complete denuclearization of North Korea, an agreement had been reached: "The United States and the DPRK commit to establishing new relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of both countries for peace and prosperity." They will work together to establish a lasting and stable peace on the Korean peninsula. These declarations were accompanied by two promises: the United States would guarantee the security of the DPRK, which, as a friendly country, would gain prosperity thanks to American aid.
He is not a statesman who agrees to give or concede without getting something in return. What does he expect from Kim that justifies what he gives him?
Should he choose the United States to stand up to China?
That the "Russia-China-North Korea" nuclear triplet, the major strategic agreement that the United States might have to face, can no longer be formed?
Will Pyongyang eventually join the alliance between Washington and Seoul?
A series of hypotheses to be confirmed
Is this what determines it, or is it just a series of adventurous hypotheses that won't be confirmed? It shouldn't take long to find out.
Whatever the outcome, the fact remains that, in a new theater, Donald Trump is showing himself to be a realist and a man of peace, unlike previous presidents, and is taking the international community, the UN Security Council and its allies by surprise. Whatever the outcome, relations between states in the Asia-Pacific region will be affected.
France is one of the countries that will have to reconsider its position. In February 2025, its Foreign Ministry website still stated: "North Korea's development of nuclear and ballistic programs constitutes a threat to regional and international security and stability, and a violation of international law. France supports the adoption of sanctions aimed at preventing North Korea from pursuing its weapons of mass destruction programs and bringing it to the negotiating table with one objective: complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization." Wouldn't it be a sign of common sense if, in turn, North Korea finally took note of reality, as we have already advocated in our columns6.
Edouard Valensi, Asie2
- Trump says he will reach out to North Korea's Kim Jong Un, Reuters, 24/01/2025
- KCNA commentary on ROK's reckless military manoeuvres, Pyongyang Times, 10/02/2025
- North Korea vows to boost nuclear arsenal after US submarine docks in Busan, NK News, 11/02/2025
- Japan to coordinate with U.S. as Trump calls North Korea nuclear power, Kyodo News, 21/02/2025
- S. Korea says N. Korea can never be recognized as nuclear power after Trump nominee refers to Pyongyang as one, Yonhap News Agency, 15/01/2025
- Cf. Asie21 n° 174/2023-07&08 North Korea - France - United Nations: France in denial
