North Korea: A nuclear tsunami
By having sailed an underwater drone for nearly two hours, a technological feat, North Korea has just demonstrated that by an underwater nuclear explosion it can in an instant annihilate a fleet that would seek to attack it. The Korean strategic balance has been severely affected. Wouldn't it be appropriate to take note of this and on this basis to consider opening a dialogue with North Korea?
On 24 March 2023, an AFP dispatch announced the testing by North Korea of a "nuclear attack drone", a new weapon, a "radioactive tsunami" which, according to Pyongyang, could destroy the enemy's naval groups and main operational ports. An announcement greeted with skepticism by South Korean and American experts. What exactly is the situation?
For North Korea, the tripartite exercises of the US, South Korean and Japanese forces, with the presence of the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and large air forces, are maneuvers simulating the "occupation" of North Korea. Repeated, intentionally provocative war exercises that bring the military and political situation on the Korean peninsula to an irreversibly dangerous point.
The anti-North Korean war scenario of these forces, the deployment of huge strategic means, the volume of forces involved and the mode of warfare they announce are such that, in the urgency, the armed forces of North Korea must prepare for an all-out war and strengthen their nuclear component in quality and quantity.
Since the warnings given by the simulated nuclear missile campaigns did not lead to a return to a peaceful situation, and in order to alert the enemy once again, the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea, from March 21 to 23, 2023, conducted a tactical exercise simulating a nuclear counter-attack, and above all, proceeded, in the presence of Kim Jong-un, to the testing of a novel underwater attack weapon system. A secret weapon called Unmanned Underwater Nuclear Attack Craft "Haeil".
This nuclear UAV (Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) is a new operational concept that will "surpass imperialist aggression forces." Research on the UAV began in 2012 at North Korea's Defense Science Research Institute. The mission of this strategic weapon is to stealthily infiltrate enemy operational waters and cause a "radioactive tsunami" through an underwater explosion in order to destroy the enemy's naval air groups and major operational ports (see Box 1).
Thus, on March 21, 2023, a nuclear underwater attack drone was launched off Iwon in the East Sea of Korea. The self-guided craft sailed for 59 hours and 12 minutes on a figure-of-eight trajectory at depths between 80 and 150 meters to reach the target point in the waters of Hongwon Bay, a fictitious enemy port. There, its dummy warhead exploded. The test ensured the drone's navigational qualities, verified its reliability and fully confirmed its lethal strike capability.
This announcement can not leave indifferent.
- It must be taken as true, no matter what reassuring experts may say.
- It demonstrates that North Korea has mastered a new technology: fiber optic gyro guidance and was able to navigate an autonomous underwater vehicle for nearly 60 hours.
- It reveals the eminently dangerous character, not only of threatening words, but especially of the repetition of exercises considered by North Korea as rehearsals for invasion. Isn't it reckless to provoke a nuclear power into escalation?
- Basically, whatever the justifications were, and remain, for the international community's 2006 policy toward North Korea, is it not outdated by 2023? Not only does it deny the reality that North Korea is a responsible nuclear power, but by limiting itself to sanctions and prohibiting any dialogue with North Korea, it justifies and enables escalation.
Underwater nuclear explosions at shallow depths
The U.S. Navy carried out only one explosion of a nuclear charge at shallow depth, "Baker", on 24 July 1946. With a 23 Kt charge that was detonated at a depth of 27 meters. The effects were so terrifying that there were no other explosions of this nature.
The fireball created a massive "spray dome" containing nearly two million tons of water. This dome developed as a hollow chimney 6,000 feet (1,800 meters) high, 2,000 feet (600 meters) in diameter, and 300 feet (90 meters) thick.
The first few seconds of an underwater explosion, note the relative dimensions of heavy tonnage vessels and the spray dome.
The displacement of water created a tsunami, with waves of 94 feet (29 meters) and another 15 feet (4.5 meters) 3.5 miles (5.6 kilometers) from the explosion that sank all ships within a radius of 1,000 meters and severely damaged them in radius circles between 1,500 and 4,000 meters. In addition, the enormous flux of neutrons emitted during the fission, absorbed by the sodium, chlorine and other constituents of the sea water, gave rise to radioactive isotopes that contaminated the surrounding ships when the giant wave created by the explosion reached them, putting the crews in great danger.
A military government that intends to use this type of explosion, while controlling its effects and collateral damage, will take care to strictly limit its power, based on the tables in the book The effects of Nuclear weapons (available on Amazon). One kiloton is a power that could be retained; the previous dimensions would then be divided by five.
EV
