NORTH KOREA DESPITE ALL, THE NINTH NUCLEAR POWER
An extract of “The New Era of Nuclear Strategy : From Cold War Arsenals To Nuclear Sufficiency” Amazon publisher
- For India, Deterrence May Not Prevent War , http://nucnews.net/nucnews/2002nn/0201nn/020117nn.htm#040 , Base\For_India_Deterrence_May_Not_Prevent_War.pdf
- Pakistan's nuclear posture: security and survivability , http://www.npec-web.org/Frameset.asp?PageType=Single&PDFFile=20070121-Lavoy-PakistanNuclearPosture&PDFFolder=Essays , Base\Pakistan_s_nuclear_posture.pdf
- Musharraf warned Indian PM of 'unconventional warfare', http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/12/30/1041196597500.html , Base\Musharraf_warned_Indian_PM_of_unconventional_warfare.pdf
It took thirty years of effort, a generation time, for the IAEA, in April 2009, to agree that North Korea has become a "fully fledged nuclear power". And thirteen more years for Kim Jong-un could declare that his country can rely on a formidable deterrent.
North Korea has paid dearly for this. Not so much by the cost of the studies andthe industrial complex it had to develop, but by the international sanctions pursuant to the Resolution 1718 (2006) of the Security Council; This was not only the prohibition of all transfers of tools, machines, , industrial supplies, or raw materials (energy and metal) that could contribute directly or indirectly to the realization of its program, but also a series of measures intended to financially asphyxiate it: blocking of banking channels, prohibition of exports. A package of prohibitions broadly understood at the behest of the U.S.A. as an example, British American Tobacco has agreed to pay combined penalties of more than $629 million to resolve bank fraud arising out of the companies' scheme to sale tobacco products in North Korea1.
There is no doubt that these United Nations sanctions have affected the humanitarian situation and the right to development of the DPRK But for Kim Jong-un as his father, giving his country a credible deterrent force against American imperialism is an absolute priority.
Already formidable and continuously modernized forces
Anyone all over the world can find out about the status of North Korea's deterrence programs since under the heading of the Resolution 1718 a group of up to seven experts (“Panel of Experts”), among different tasks, examine and analyze information regarding activities related to the DPRK nuclear and ballistic missile programs. 2.
They have been able to follow the spectacular progress of the North Korean missile families, observing that in 2022 the previously identified major trends in the ballistic missile programs have been confirmed and developed, including the improvement of the strategic forces’ command and control, the optimization of operational readiness of both solid- and liquid-propelled missile systems with increased diversity, mobility and resilience, and the continuous improvement in the efficiency of ICBM-specific liquid- and now solid-propellant engines. And more, while the last intercontinental missile tested is with a solid propellant, a new missile combining ballistic and guidance technology and which, delivers “a hypersonic gliding warhead”, a maneuverable re -entry vehicle according to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Once more it is by a television channel that the experts of the entire world have been invited to an unprecedented initiative: the display of the latest operational nuclear warheads contrary to similar exhibition set up in the United States, Russia, and China, which have only a retrospective value. It should also be noted that France has never shown a view of its nuclear weapons1.
Among the warheads displayed, the "Hwasan-31" ("Volcano-31") standard miniaturized thermonuclear warhead that will arm DPRK missiles. The warhead, whose external dimensions are 50 centimeters in diameter, about 80 centimeters in length, and a weight that would be between 400 and 500 kilograms, testifies to the progress made in miniaturization by the Nuclear Weapons Institute.
No less than ten types of missiles can be equipped with the Hwasan-31 warhead, according to the panels presenting its use, including the 600 mm MLRS KN-25, the "nuclear tsunami", the Hwasal-1 and Hwasal-2 strategic cruise missiles, and the SRBM KN-123 and KN-24.
In conjunction with this exhibition, the DPRK has steered the testing of an Unmanned Underwater Nuclear Attack Craft "Haeil". Thus, on March 21, 2023, this underwater attack drone sailed for 59 hours and 12 minutes on a 1 500 kilometers trajectory at depths between 80 and 150 meters to reach the target point in the waters of Hongwon Bay, a fictitious enemy port. This nuclear UAV (Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) is said to be a new operational concept that will "surpass imperialist aggression forces.
To the dismay of the international community, North Korea could not agree to give up weapons that guarantee the survival of the regime, recalling that North Korea's forces are only a deterrent. "The enemy of the country's nuclear forces is not a specific state or group, but war and nuclear catastrophe itself." The policy of expanding the arsenal has only defensive purposes and seeks only to ensure regional peace and stability.
Koreas on the verge of a nuclear war?
But that is not the most alarming point. On March 7, 2023, the annual report of the Group of Experts appointed to monitor the sanctions imposed by the Security Council on North Korea because of its continued strategic programs raised a red alarm3.
The succession of large-scale military exercises conducted by the combined naval forces of South Korea, Japan, and the United States, with the presence in the waters of the Korean peninsula of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, was seen by Pyongyang as a rehearsal for an attack on its territory, not without reason. So much so that the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea decided to hold a real war simulation on the Korean peninsula, including tactical firing with the following potential objectives:
to neutralize the airports in the South Korean areas of operations,
simulate the strike of the enemy's main military command facilities,
paralyzing the enemy's main ports with multiple rocket launchers.
With all the restraint required of diplomats? it is an unequivocal message that is thus sent to the international community. A worrying, not to say terrifying, climate reigns on the Korean peninsula. Should a serious incident degenerate, and the nuclear threshold could be crossed.
This would mean all-out war, as Kim Jong-Un has been warned by President Joe Biden himself. To reassure Yoon Suk Yeol, President of South Korea, the first country under threat, he warns: “A nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of whatever regime were to take such an action23
23 Biden and South Korea’s Yoon announce agreement to deter North Korea, including deploying nuclear-armed submarine4 .
To keep the risk of a nuclear war at bay
Those are strong words, but a President who seems to have overlooked that American cities are just as threatened by North Korean missiles.
And that at the same time: China and Russia had vetoed a U.S.-led push to impose more U.N. sanctions on North Korea over its renewed ballistic missile launches. China's ambassador declaring “the Security Council needed to play a constructive role instead of relying solely on strong rhetoric or pressure." It should promote the resumption of dialogue instead of widening differences and forge unity instead of creating divisions".
The White House's Nuclear Posture Review is taking into account North Korea's deterrent forces as an established threat that must be contained over the long term.
Whatever the justifications were, and remain, for the international community's 2006 policy toward North Korea, is it not outdated by 2023? Not only does it deny the reality that North Korea is acting like a responsible nuclear power, but by limiting itself to sanctions and prohibiting any dialogue, it justifies and enables DPRK nuclear escalations.
Edouard D Valensi
Edouard.d.valensi@gmail.com
(1) United States Obtains $629 Million Settlement with British American Tobacco to Resolve Illegal Sales to North Korea, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/united-states-obtains-629-million-settlement-british-american-tobacco-resolve-illegal-sales#:~:text=British%20American%20Tobacco%20(BAT)%20and,violations%20charges%20with%20U.S.%20authorities%2C
(2) Letter from the panel of experts; https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1718/panel_experts/reports
(3) Final report of the Panel of Experts submitted pursuant to resolution 2627 (2022)
(4) Biden and South Korea’s Yoon announce agreement to deter North Korea, including deploying nuclear-armed submarine; https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/26/politics/biden-yoon-south-korea-state-visit/index.html
